New analysis of O’Malley campaign says gov not “safe.”

The Baltimore Sun
By Annie Linskey
March 7, 2010

Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg downgraded Gov. Martin O'Malley's chances for success this fall if pitted against former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich.

Relying on a non-partisan Rasmussen poll that was in the field at end of February, Rothenberg moved O'Malley's outlook from "Safe" to "Narrow Advantage."

The Rasmussen poll shows O'Malley, a Democrat, with a six point advantage over Ehrlich, a Republican. Ehrlich won't say if he is running but many expect him to jump into the race later this month.

"O'Malley can no longer be considered safe," Rothenberg wrote on his blog. "But the burden of proof is still on the Republicans to prove Ehrlich can win in a very Democratic state."

O'Malley's campaign Friday sent out a one-page memo describing a slightly sunnier internal poll. That survey gives O'Malley a ten point advantage. It shows that 51 percent of likely voters would pick O'Malley over Ehrlich, who has 41 percent support, according to O'Malley's figures. Eight percent are undecided. The margin for error is 4.1 percent.

The O'Malley poll is about a week older then the Rasmussen survey - the governor's pollsters called 604 likely voters from Feb. 10 to Feb. 13.

O'Malley's campaign also released some demographic figures. They say he's gained ground in Montgomery and Prince George's counties since his 2006 match up with Ehrlich. Also he says he running strong with women: 53 percent to 38 percent. Men don't like him as much, but his number show he has a 47 percent to 45 percent advantage over Ehrlich.

O'Malley campaign manager Tom Russell did say the thinks the survey shows the governor is "in a strong position." Russell added: "I don't know that anyone would read it differently."

The O'Malley campaign wouldn't give any additional information about it, which makes us uncomfortable. We'd like to know how many questions were asked and more about the demographic breakdowns.

And, most importantly, we want to know: How hard are those "support" numbers? Pollsters generally ask give callers the option to say they either "strongly support" or "are leaning toward" a candidate. Then they lump the two categories together.

Unsurprisingly, Ehrlich's camp (which, again, won't confirm candidacy) disagrees. "Our polling shows a vastly different landscape in Maryland," wrote Ehrlich spokesman Henry Fawell. The Ehrlich spokesman also wouldn't give any more detail about their polling.

As a final note, being viewed as having a in a tight race can have fundraising advantages for both sides, though the current governor can't fundraise at during the 90-day legislative session.